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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 5, 2017 ReadyMom 0
daaswampman wrote:
460 cases over five months is not much of an epidemic for a nation of over a billion people! When it reaches that many cases a day, there may be cause for concern. I am not saying it is not an important bug, but when the right bug comes alone, there will be thousands of cases a day. Even then you will have some warning unless you live in an international hub city and are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The problem with overreacting to everything, is you may miss the real deal when it comes along. Swamp

Agreed with your statement regarding over reacting. Hope you didn’t that was my intent on posting this, regarding a pandemic potential. I just think we should should be aware and know this is nasty, killing bug over there.

I think what is important (and I know you follow these things) is that OF THE PEOPLE it HAS infected … 40% of them have died. Granted that’s NOT 40% of the TOTAL country’s population … but 40% kill ratio for those who have gotten infected is substantial. IF this virus happens to go H2H (‘human-to-human’), then that 40% is a pretty big deal and it will take little to nothing to make that % even bigger. -k

Statistics: Posted by ReadyMom — Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:45 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 5, 2017 daaswampman 0
oldasrocks wrote:
I’d bet a dollar to a donut that the vast majority of cases in china are not reported at all. Plus the fact china tends to downplay anything bad. I’ll have to ask a few chinese friends what they hear from home.

Human bird flu is not the main problem here anyway. It’s food. Kill off substantial chickens and add to the fact the oceans are being depleted fast and it leaves you with a major famine problem worldwide. Chicken, ducks and geese represent a large portion of the daily protein diet of the chinese people.

As an example we have family in Taiwan where food prices are soaring. They have cut off imports from Japan since some of the received imports have been radioactive. One carrot can cost $4. US or 120 NT. One stem of broccoli $3. US . one potato $2 US., 4 thighs at KFC, $17 US., one 4 ounce fish $2, US. or 600 NT. One small whole raw chicken about $20 US. The poor people are screaming. Exchange rate is about 32 NT to one US dollar. Grain foods are still reasonable. These prices are up several hundred percent over what they were a couple years ago. My wife goes over to spend some time with her dad every winter.

Thanks Rock! I have read the same thing and it is a huge problem, one that will soon come our way. At the moment food is dirt cheap in America due to the inflated value of the dollar. Swamp

Statistics: Posted by daaswampman — Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:13 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 4, 2017 oldasrocks 0

I’d bet a dollar to a donut that the vast majority of cases in china are not reported at all. Plus the fact china tends to downplay anything bad. I’ll have to ask a few chinese friends what they hear from home.

Human bird flu is not the main problem here anyway. It’s food. Kill off substantial chickens and add to the fact the oceans are being depleted fast and it leaves you with a major famine problem worldwide. Chicken, ducks and geese represent a large portion of the daily protein diet of the chinese people.

As an example we have family in Taiwan where food prices are soaring. They have cut off imports from Japan since some of the received imports have been radioactive. One carrot can cost $4. US or 120 NT. One stem of broccoli $3. US . one potato $2 US., 4 thighs at KFC, $17 US., one 4 ounce fish $2, US. or 600 NT. One small whole raw chicken about $20 US. The poor people are screaming. Exchange rate is about 32 NT to one US dollar. Grain foods are still reasonable. These prices are up several hundred percent over what they were a couple years ago. My wife goes over to spend some time with her dad every winter.

Statistics: Posted by oldasrocks — Sat Mar 04, 2017 6:39 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 4, 2017 daaswampman 0

460 cases over five months is not much of an epidemic for a nation of over a billion people! When it reaches that many cases a day, there may be cause for concern. I am not saying it is not an important bug, but when the right bug comes alone, there will be thousands of cases a day. Even then you will have some warning unless you live in an international hub city and are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The problem with overreacting to everything, is you may miss the real deal when it comes along. Swamp

Statistics: Posted by daaswampman — Sat Mar 04, 2017 5:37 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 4, 2017 Illini Warrior 0
ReadyMom wrote:

Illini Warrior wrote:been following the pandemic in China – most likely will be the Ground Zero for the disease spread – and China won’t be reporting the truth ….

https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?se … e%22%5D%7D

:thumbsup: Flutrackers is a VERY reliable source to follow this. GREAT newshounds that are on top of current events. -k

and I always recommend a medical info site when we talk pandemic – http://www.emergencyhomepreparation.org/index.php

Statistics: Posted by Illini Warrior — Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:00 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 4, 2017 ReadyMom 0
Illini Warrior wrote:
been following the pandemic in China – most likely will be the Ground Zero for the disease spread – and China won’t be reporting the truth ….

https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?se … e%22%5D%7D

:thumbsup: Flutrackers is a VERY reliable source to follow this. GREAT newshounds that are on top of current events. -k

Statistics: Posted by ReadyMom — Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:22 am


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 4, 2017 rickdun 0

Thanks for the heads up ReadyMom, I googled how many people enter the US each day from via forgein countries and it showed 325,000 people enter our airports on a daily basis from other countries, I’m sure most are US citizens returning from other countries. It may be just a matter of time before it gets here. What’s really stunning is that 40% that get the H7N9 die, now that’s scary.

Statistics: Posted by rickdun — Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:51 am


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Pandemic Preparedness • H7N9 Bird Flu in China is Pandemic Potential Flu

March 4, 2017 ReadyMom 0

This news reminds me of back in 2006, when I was following the H5N1 flu.

The raging bird flu in China is a good reminder the US isn’t prepared for a pandemic
The virus has a fatality rate of up to 40 percent.

A strain of deadly bird flu that has a high risk of becoming a pandemic is surging in China, and experts are warning that the US isn’t making the necessary preparations.

According to an assessment from the World Health Organization this week, China had 460 lab-confirmed human cases of the H7N9 bird flu virus since last October — the most of any flu season since the virus was first reported in humans in 2013.
This makes the current outbreak the largest on record for H7N9, a virus that typically circulates around poultry markets and can cause pneumonia or death when it spreads to people. Forty percent of those with confirmed H7N9 infections have died — including at least 87 people this year alone. That’s a very deadly pathogen.

The risk of the current outbreak causing a global epidemic is low right now, the WHO said. Almost all of the current infections were caught directly from birds and there’s no evidence yet of ongoing human-to-human transmission. But whenever bird flu spreads to people, there’s always the worry that it will mutate to become more contagious.

The people most at risk of H7N9 virus right now are poultry workers in China. Vietnam should also be on guard; reports suggest the virus has surfaced there as well.

But if this H7N9 outbreak were to spread further, experts say the United States is not ready.
“America has long been unprepared for a dangerous pandemic, but the risks are especially high under President Trump,” the former Ebola czar Ron Klain told Vox.

Trump hasn’t yet named nominees for a new head to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, the agency that would lead a pandemic response. He also hasn’t nominated anyone to head Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, or USAID — two other key agencies in a pandemic.

With the repeal of the Affordable Care Act looming, Trump is poised to gut a key public health fund that accounts for 12 percent of the CDC’s budget, and he’s reinstated the global gag rule, which depletes global health funding. “His proposed cuts in foreign aid,” Klain added, “will devastate work to detect and combat disease outbreaks abroad — the very best way to prevent those diseases from coming to America.”

If it’s not a bird flu outbreak, it’ll be some other health threat. The pace at which pathogens are flying around the globe and threatening pandemics is only accelerating. Over the past decade, the WHO has declared four global health emergencies. Two of them happened during President Obama’s tenure (Ebola and Zika). There’s slim chance Trump will finish a four-year term without facing an outbreak of some kind.

As for H7N9, it’s very possible it could spread to birds and people in other countries, said Dr. Tim Uyeki, a medical epidemiologist in CDC’s influenza division.

“Among the viruses we’ve assessed… H7N9 is the most concerning. It’s at the top of the list,” Uyeki said. “We don’t know when the next pandemic is going to start, where it’s going to start. But at this time the biggest concern is the H7N9 virus.”

Treating the current cases is also proving to be a challenge since some seem to carry genetic markers associated with drug resistance to antiviral treatments for the disease, like Tamiflu. A new assessment from the CDC also shows the virus has also split into a new lineage — which is a problem because the vaccine development for H7N9 was based on an older lineage of the virus. So we don’t have any vaccine candidates in the pipeline to fully address the current outbreak.

Statistics: Posted by ReadyMom — Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:39 am


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 29, 2017 daaswampman 0
ReadyMom wrote:

daaswampman wrote: For most people, social distancing and sheltering in place may be their best options, unless your bug out location is free of birds! Swamp

Swamp, in a pandemic, social distancing & sheltering wouldn’t be just the best option for everyone. Until a viable vaccine is made for the strain moving through, it would be the only option.

For those not familiar w/ pandemics, don’t get fooled into thinking once it moves through your area, it’s all clear and gone away. Pandemics come in ‘waves’.

          Wave 1: the first time it comes through and creates illness & death.
          Then everyone thinks it’s gone through and all is oke. They begin to go out and socialize. Interaction with each other again.

              THEN:

          Wave 2: comes through because there is still no immunity to the virus, until it either burns out by killing all who have no immunity & leaving behind only those who are immune, or population is vaccinated against the virus.

Sometimes the second wave is more severe than the first. Each wave can last several months at a time. Sometimes there are more than 2 waves.

Pandemics & EMPS. Both have the same devastation to population. Massive deaths. :( -k

I agree unless you get out early and have a remote location. Thank You for bringing up the time element! I agree it could be months before it is safe to get out. Then there is a problem when and if a vaccine becomes available! You really don’t want to get exposed until the vaccine has had a chance to build your immunity! No different than people waiting until the flu is in their community to then rush out for a flu shot and then complain it didn’t work or it gave them the flu!

Even that may be a the optimistic outcome, this could be far more complex due to inter-species transmissions and expected transfers and mutations! If one cuts loose, there could be multiple waves of similar yet different bugs. Swamp

Statistics: Posted by daaswampman — Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:24 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 29, 2017 ReadyMom 0
daaswampman wrote:
For most people, social distancing and sheltering in place may be their best options, unless your bug out location is free of birds! Swamp

Swamp, in a pandemic, social distancing & sheltering wouldn’t be just the best option for everyone. Until a viable vaccine is made for the strain moving through, it would be the only option.

For those not familiar w/ pandemics, don’t get fooled into thinking once it moves through your area, it’s all clear and gone away. Pandemics come in ‘waves’.

          Wave 1: the first time it comes through and creates illness & death.
          Then everyone thinks it’s gone through and all is oke. They begin to go out and socialize. Interaction with each other again.

              THEN:

          Wave 2: comes through because there is still no immunity to the virus, until it either burns out by killing all who have no immunity & leaving behind only those who are immune, or population is vaccinated against the virus.

Sometimes the second wave is more severe than the first. Each wave can last several months at a time. Sometimes there are more than 2 waves.

Pandemics & EMPS. Both have the same devastation to population. Massive deaths. :( -k

Statistics: Posted by ReadyMom — Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:35 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 29, 2017 ReadyMom 0
daaswampman wrote:
On the bright side modern communication should let us know its coming and where the outbreaks are, but that could also lead to panic migration with rapid spread. For most people, social distancing and sheltering in place may be their best options, unless your bug out location is free of birds! Swamp

People, like all of us who frequent prep forums, will hopefully get a heads us sooner than most. Also, helpful to follow sites like FluTrackers who are constantly monitoring potential health/pandemic situations. Sites (like FluTrackers) have ‘newshounds’ that are continually digging & scanning the global net news sources and reporting updates. The situation in Mexico, several years ago, that ended up being the start of the 2009 swine flu pandemic is a good example of an early heads up that a lot of us got. Someone posted a random ‘hey I think something strange is happening here, what do you think‘ type of post and there it was. It pays to stay current and not have your head in the sand. Because of that single post a lot of “panflu” preppers were already aware and ramping up their home medical preps well before main-stream media reported it. -k

Statistics: Posted by ReadyMom — Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:18 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 29, 2017 daaswampman 0
Cast Iron wrote:
I never get the flu shot. Well, not since the military.

Will I have developed an immunity to a future bug?

I do not know.

But I like to think my body is that much more robust than the next guy.

The answer is no. Viral immunity is very selective and usually short lived. On the flip side, it is very unlikely any vaccine would stop a pandemic bug! Only in the movies can they rush out a life saving vaccine that saves humanity in the nick of time.

On the bright side modern communication should let us know its coming and where the outbreaks are, but that could also lead to panic migration with rapid spread. For most people, social distancing and sheltering in place may be their best options, unless your bug out location is free of birds! Swamp

Statistics: Posted by daaswampman — Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:19 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 28, 2017 ReadyMom 0
donba wrote:
When Readymom starts posting about locking down, then I worry and duck and cover……..

:| . . . :'( Honestly, I haven’t been following flu, like I used to :blush: . I think I’m shell-shocked from the H5N1 threat that never panned out and the the 2009 Swine flu pandemic that died out after the mass vaccinations at the school start up in the fall. There have been so many other pressing problems (national politics, economy, international turmoils) that seemed more of a threat than pandemic.

After reading this post, I ran over to FluTrackers to see what was up & current. There’s a thread over there that is keeping current on the H7N9 strain, if anyone is interested (that one seems to be the most concerning): https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/nat … nformation -k

Added to note: Since kicking my prepping up to ‘high-gear’, back in 2006-09, I have SO MUCH *old* food in storage. I’m in the process of looking at some of those things and am in the ‘toss’ or ‘don’t toss’ mode. 2006, 07, 08 & 09 canned soups just sound ‘blah’ and I’m really not sure it’s worth saving them anymore nutritionally. (But that’s a whole ‘nother thread!!) -k

Statistics: Posted by ReadyMom — Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:15 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 28, 2017 IceFire 0
Cast Iron wrote:
I never get the flu shot. Well, not since the military.

Will I have developed an immunity to a future bug?

I do not know.

But I like to think my body is that much more robust than the next guy.

I’ve only had ONE flu shot in my life…also in the military. Let’s just say that anaphylaxis is an experience I do NOT wish to repeat. (Not to mention that needed to post a guard over someone’s body for an hour to make sure they keep breathing takes away nursing resources that can better be used elsewhere.) Whenever flu shot time rolled around after that, they told me to get the heck out of there.

Funny thing is, except for after that shot, when I got a raging case of the flu (they were using us as guinea pigs to test out a “live virus” vaccine that year–after which they decided that live virus vaccine was NOT a good idea) I’ve NEVER had the flu, even when everyone around me got it.

Statistics: Posted by IceFire — Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:49 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 28, 2017 Illini Warrior 0
idahobeef wrote:
My BF is a nurse, he read this article and said yes, its very very serious. He’s been in the nursing field for over 30 years, mainly in urban city ERs. Scary!

I can’t believe we haven’t had severe local pandemics with the utter diseased trash that’s coming across the border – none are vaccinated and coming from areas of the world that still have biblical plague diseases common ….

bad enough that the illegals have diseases – but Obammy’s rules allowed diagnosed diseased refugees into the country and spread them into unsuspecting communities – surprised the ever living hell out of some ER docs ….

Statistics: Posted by Illini Warrior — Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:02 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 28, 2017 daaswampman 0
oldasrocks wrote:

daaswampman wrote:Good articles and they give me hope! One way of the other the human heard needs thinning! A good worldwide pandemic would certainly be nicer than wars or famine! Swamp

Except for the fact more of us would die off. We’ve been too protected, for too long, from most diseases so we have no immunity built up for anything.

Seems like a win – win to me! Don’t matter if your dead and a better life if your not! Swamp

Statistics: Posted by daaswampman — Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:45 pm


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Pandemic Preparedness • Re: Proliferation of bird flu outbreaks raises risk of human

January 28, 2017 oldasrocks 0
daaswampman wrote:
Good articles and they give me hope! One way of the other the human heard needs thinning! A good worldwide pandemic would certainly be nicer than wars or famine! Swamp

Except for the fact more of us would die off. We’ve been too protected, for too long, from most diseases so we have no immunity built up for anything.

Statistics: Posted by oldasrocks — Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:15 pm